The idea that magic works by altering probabilities seems to be a fairly new one. From what I can tell, it started with Peter Carroll? Regardless, this idea has now pervaded much of the occult community, perhaps a result of how probability is misused in secular discourse too, and it bleeding over into magic. When talking about lottery spells, the standard response is usually something along the lines of “Magic is about shifting probabilities in your favour. The chances of winning the lottery is only one in fourteen million - even if you improve your chances one thousand fold, you still only have a one in fourteen thousand chance of winning, so it still doesn’t make sense”.
I think that this whole notion of magic working by shifting probabilities is totally misguided. Without going into a detailed technical discussion, I think a simple example serves to illustrate the point. A good number of sincere occult practitioners have encountered various physical phenomena in their practice. If a spirit moves a physical object, what’s the probability of that? Someone could calculate the chance of that happening as a result of quantum mechanical processes, but the ridiculously low probability of any such event occurring dispels any notion of the spirits working by shifting probabilities. Certainly winning the lottery is unfathomably more likely.
I like to think of the action of spirits similarly to that of people - they have intelligence, and an ability to interact with the world in some way, and hence affect changes. It’s not a case of an ephemeral probability adjustment.
To continue with the lottery example, if a spirit can move objects around the room, why couldn’t it subtly manipulate the movement of the balls in a ball drop machine to make the right numbers come out for your lottery spell - I think many spirits have demonstrated this as being well within their capabilities.
Which then leaves us back with the question, why aren’t magicians winning lotteries left right and centre, and manifesting all their other desires?
Figuring out the principles of something as slippery of magic is always going to be an incomplete story, but I think there are the obvious causes like the talent and skill of the magician, the capacities of the spirits involved in the working etc…
However, one thing I do think is at play as well is simply that God (or whatever other name you want to give to it) simply won’t allow certain requests. Simply being given vast fortunes, or revealing the secrets of the physical laws of the universe or whatever, without any effort, just doesn’t seem to be on the cards. The perennial question of “if God is good why does he allow bad things” does demonstrate one thing - we’re not here to simply have a good time with no struggles, and I suspect massive requests like winning the lottery go against what our physical existence is for in the first place.
And also, if a magical working would require too much to be changed on our behalf, this again might be where God or whatever just says “No”.
What this does also imply is that there may be cases where such requests would be allowed, if it fits within whatever the greater scheme is.
Anyway, these have been my thoughts recently on the topic, would be curious to hear what others think. To be clear, I was writing this thinking about magic, especially ambitious workings, in general, not just lottery tickets. That’s just the classic example.